Tennis · Challenger Pozoblanco · 13/07, 18:30
Prediction: Takuya Kumasaka vs Pavel Lagutin
Prediction summary
Winner
Takuya Kumasaka
Pavel Lagutin
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Takuya Kumasaka
6-4 (W-L)
Pavel Lagutin
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Takuya Kumasaka 1486 · Pavel Lagutin 1576
| Takuya Kumasaka | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1486 vs 1576).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Takuya Kumasaka | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-12.6 | 12.1-8 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 1 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 65.4% | 58.5% |
| Break % | 49.5% | 45% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Takuya Kumasaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Robin Bertrand M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Alvaro Jimenez M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 17/06 | Yuki Mochizuki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 11/06 | Taisei Ichikawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Naoki Nakagawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 19/05 | Taiyo Yamanaka Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 14/05 | Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul M15 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
Pavel Lagutin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Nicolas Tepmahc Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Troyes · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 29/06 | Franco Ribero Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/06 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Pietro Marino M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Oscar Andres Martinez de Freitas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Pavlos Tsitsipas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/05 | Esteban Talavera Cortes UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Miguel Angel Machado UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/05 | Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Takuya Kumasaka vs Pavel Lagutin?
Our model gives 58% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.