Tennis · Challenger Pozoblanco · 13/07, 18:30
Prediction: Dominik Palan vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Dominik Palan
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Dominik Palan
5-5 (W-L)
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dominik Palan 1462 · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1536
| Dominik Palan | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mario Gonzalez Fernandez (rating 1462 vs 1536).
- Note: Dominik Palan makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Dominik Palan | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-12.3 | 11.4-10.4 |
| Aces | 9.4 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 75.9% | 63.6% |
| Break % | 29.9% | 59.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dominik Palan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Adam Martin Espinar Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/06 | David Poljak Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 21/06 | John Sperle Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Alec Beckley Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Luc Koenig Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Alastair Gray Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Kokoro Isomura Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Keegan Smith Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 11/05 | Maan Kesharwani Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/05 | Taiyo Yamanaka M25 Nakhon Pathom · ~Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matthew Summers M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Porto |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Robin Catry M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Alejandro Arcila M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Khololwam Montsi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dominik Palan vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez?
Our model gives 63% to Mario Gonzalez Fernandez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.