Prediction: Varvara Lepchenko vs Alevtina Ibragimova
Prediction summary
Winner
Varvara Lepchenko
Alevtina Ibragimova
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Varvara Lepchenko
4-6 (W-L)
Alevtina Ibragimova
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Varvara Lepchenko
1–0
Alevtina Ibragimova
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Varvara Lepchenko 1511 · Alevtina Ibragimova 1553
| Varvara Lepchenko | Alevtina Ibragimova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alevtina Ibragimova (rating 1511 vs 1553).
- Varvara Lepchenko dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 48.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Varvara Lepchenko 1–0 Alevtina Ibragimova (1).
- Note: Alevtina Ibragimova makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Varvara Lepchenko | Alevtina Ibragimova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-12 | 10.9-8.4 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 57.2% | 56.6% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 58.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Varvara Lepchenko 1 – 0 Alevtina Ibragimova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Varvara Lepchenko 1–0 Alevtina Ibragimova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/25 WTA Oeiras | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Varvara Lepchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Maia Ilinca Burcescu WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/07 | Tamara Korpatsch WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/07 | Lisa Zaar WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 23/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Noemi Basiletti WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 01/06 | Iryna Shymanovich WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Lucia Bronzetti French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
Alevtina Ibragimova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Maria Kozyreva WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/06 | Francesca Curmi W75 Blois · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/06 | Lucie Nguyen Tan W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Amandine Hesse W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/06 | Mina Hodzic W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Margaux Rouvroy W75 Blois · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Clara Burel W35 Nice |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Denislava Glushkova W35 Nice |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Berta Bonardi W35 Nice |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/05 | Lola Radivojevic W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Varvara Lepchenko vs Alevtina Ibragimova?
Our model gives 50% to Varvara Lepchenko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.