Prediction: Nadia Podoroska vs Petra Marcinko
Prediction summary
Winner
Nadia Podoroska
Petra Marcinko
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nadia Podoroska
6-4 (W-L)
Petra Marcinko
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nadia Podoroska 1567 · Petra Marcinko 1509
| Nadia Podoroska | Petra Marcinko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nadia Podoroska (rating 1567 vs 1509).
- Note: Nadia Podoroska makes many double faults (5.4/match).
- Note: Petra Marcinko makes many double faults (8.3/match).
Statistics
| Nadia Podoroska | Petra Marcinko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.4 | 13.4-13 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 8.3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.6% | 67.2% |
| Break % | 52.1% | 34.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.1
Over 19.5: 76% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 24% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nadia Podoroska
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Lucciana Perez Alarcon W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Ruien Zhang W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Carolina Troiano W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Lucciana Perez Alarcon W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 13/06 | Aurora Zantedeschi W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Dunja Maric W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/06 | Tahlia Kokkinis W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Ruien Zhang W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/05 | Luisina Giovannini W75 Zaragoza · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Petra Marcinko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Clara Burel WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Sofia Kenin Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Caty McNally WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Kimberly Birrell WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 21/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Simona Waltert WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 15/06 | Renata Zarazua WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Aoi Ito WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 04/06 | Barbora Palicova WTA Makarska · Clay |
1-2 | 16-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nadia Podoroska vs Petra Marcinko?
Our model gives 60% to Petra Marcinko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.