Prediction: Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu
Prediction summary
Winner
Varvara Lepchenko
Maia Ilinca Burcescu
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Varvara Lepchenko
5-5 (W-L)
Maia Ilinca Burcescu
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Varvara Lepchenko 1485 · Maia Ilinca Burcescu 1522
| Varvara Lepchenko | Maia Ilinca Burcescu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Varvara Lepchenko dominates on serve: 8 aces and 44.2% break avg.
- Note: Maia Ilinca Burcescu makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Varvara Lepchenko | Maia Ilinca Burcescu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-12.4 | 10.5-7.8 |
| Aces | 8 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 57.5% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 58.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.7
Over 20.5: 62% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 38% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Varvara Lepchenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/07 | Tamara Korpatsch WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/07 | Lisa Zaar WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 23/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Noemi Basiletti WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant WTA Foggia · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 01/06 | Iryna Shymanovich WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Lucia Bronzetti French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/05 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Maia Ilinca Burcescu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05 | Isabelle Cherny W35 Platja d'Aro · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-10 | L |
| 23/04 | Fabienne Gettwart W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 22/04 | Sarah Victoria Majesty Nita W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/12 | Yasmine Mansouri W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 20/12 | Charlotte Pikkaart W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/12 | Lan Mi W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/12 | Margaux Komano W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 8-0 | W |
| 16/10 | Antonia Stoyanov W35 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Maria Sara Popa W35 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Marika Jones W35 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Varvara Lepchenko vs Maia Ilinca Burcescu?
Our model gives 60% to Varvara Lepchenko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.