Tennis · Challenger Pozoblanco · 12/07, 20:00
Prediction: Pavel Lagutin vs Nicolas Tepmahc
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavel Lagutin
Nicolas Tepmahc
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Pavel Lagutin
8-2 (W-L)
Nicolas Tepmahc
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Lagutin 1578 · Nicolas Tepmahc 1497
| Pavel Lagutin | Nicolas Tepmahc | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1578 vs 1497).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Pavel Lagutin makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Pavel Lagutin | Nicolas Tepmahc | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-7.2 | 10.5-9.3 |
| Aces | 2 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 4 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 56% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 33% | 40.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Lagutin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Troyes · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 29/06 | Franco Ribero Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/06 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Pietro Marino M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Oscar Andres Martinez de Freitas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Pavlos Tsitsipas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/05 | Esteban Talavera Cortes UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Miguel Angel Machado UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/05 | Juan Pablo Valdez Guzon UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Darius Florin Pop UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Nicolas Tepmahc
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Theo Herrmann M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Melih Anavatan M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/06 | Ivan Marrero Curbelo M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/06 | Ammar Faleh Alhogbani M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Cem Christopher Kucukhuseyin M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Udit Kamboj M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/06 | Diego Fernandez Flores M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Mahmoud Chetouane M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 03/06 | Benjamin Willwerth M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Yassine Dlimi M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Lagutin vs Nicolas Tepmahc?
Our model gives 59% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.