Tennis · W35 Hillcrest · 11/07, 09:30
Prediction: Ksenia Smirnova vs Polina Leykina
Prediction summary
Winner
Ksenia Smirnova
Polina Leykina
Estimated games
19.7
Recent form · 10 last
Ksenia Smirnova
7-3 (W-L)
Polina Leykina
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ksenia Smirnova 1562 · Polina Leykina 1620
| Ksenia Smirnova | Polina Leykina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polina Leykina (rating 1562 vs 1620).
- Note: Ksenia Smirnova makes many double faults (7.1/match).
Statistics
| Ksenia Smirnova | Polina Leykina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 100% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-8.6 | 12.2-6.8 |
| Aces | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 7.1 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 59.6% | 60.2% |
| Break % | 56.1% | 63.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ksenia Smirnova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Isabella Kruger W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Danielle Dai Chapman W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Dominika Podhajecka W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 03/07 | Jenny Duerst W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Nelise Verster W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Valentina Khrebtova W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/06 | Ann Akasha Ceuca W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Anastasiya Krymkova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Irem Kurt W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 29/05 | Elizaveta Gurianova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Polina Leykina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Jenny Duerst W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Marilouise Van Zyl W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Abigayel Vosloo W35 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/07 | Jenny Duerst W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Marilouise Van Zyl W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/07 | Donna Le Roux W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Jahnie Van Zyl W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Kei Yau Cheung W15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/06 | Elsa Bonelli W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Lara Schmidt W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ksenia Smirnova vs Polina Leykina?
Our model gives 54% to Polina Leykina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.