Tennis · W75 The Hague · 10/07, 10:00
Prediction: Lia Karatancheva vs Arantxa Rus
Prediction summary
Winner
Lia Karatancheva
Arantxa Rus
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Lia Karatancheva
6-4 (W-L)
Arantxa Rus
4-6 (W-L)
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lia Karatancheva 1564 · Arantxa Rus 1474
| Lia Karatancheva | Arantxa Rus | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lia Karatancheva (rating 1564 vs 1474).
- Lia Karatancheva is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lia Karatancheva | Arantxa Rus | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-7.2 | 11.5-11.5 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 56.4% |
| Break % | 58.3% | 45.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lia Karatancheva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Chloe Paquet W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 08/07 | Iva Primorac Pavicic W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 06/07 | Daniela Vismane W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Charlotte Pikkaart W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 03/07 | Maria Sara Popa W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Nellie Taraba Wallberg W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 7-0 | W |
| 01/07 | Vittoria Paganetti W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Joy De Zeeuw W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Lucie Urbanova W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Arantxa Rus
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Federica Urgesi W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Sarah Van Emst W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Martina Capurro Taborda W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Veronika Podrez Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Jazmin Ortenzi French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/05 | Kristina Liutova W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Madison Brengle W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/05 | Eryn Cayetano W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/04 | Anna Rogers W100 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Akasha Urhobo W100 Charlottesville |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lia Karatancheva vs Arantxa Rus?
Our model gives 51% to Lia Karatancheva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.