Tennis · W75 The Hague · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Federica Urgesi vs Arantxa Rus
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Federica Urgesi; the market gives 50% to Federica Urgesi (odds 1.83).
Over their last 10 matches, Federica Urgesi sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Arantxa Rus arrives on a 4-6 run.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federica Urgesi 1520 · Arantxa Rus 1474
| Federica Urgesi | Arantxa Rus | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Federica Urgesi (rating 1520 vs 1474).
Statistics
| Federica Urgesi | Arantxa Rus | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-9.6 | 11.6-11.8 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 5 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 55.1% | 56.3% |
| Break % | 44.5% | 52% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federica Urgesi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Lucija Ciric Bagaric W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Katerina Tsygourova W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Alessandra Mazzola W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 06/06 | Deborah Chiesa W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/06 | Marta Lombardini W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/06 | Gabriela Ce W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 02/06 | Vivian Wolff W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Arantxa Rus
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Sarah Van Emst W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Martina Capurro Taborda W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Veronika Podrez Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Jazmin Ortenzi French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/05 | Kristina Liutova W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Madison Brengle W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/05 | Eryn Cayetano W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/04 | Anna Rogers W100 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Akasha Urhobo W100 Charlottesville |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 22/04 | Alicia Herrero Linana W100 Charlottesville |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federica Urgesi vs Arantxa Rus?
Our model gives 53% to Federica Urgesi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.