Prediction: Xinyu Gao vs Hanne Vandewinkel
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Hanne Vandewinkel; the market gives 66% to Hanne Vandewinkel (odds 1.40).
Over their last 10 matches, Xinyu Gao sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Hanne Vandewinkel arrives on a 5-5 run.
| Xinyu Gao | Hanne Vandewinkel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hanne Vandewinkel (rating 1458 vs 1508).
- Xinyu Gao dominates on serve: 10.3 aces and 44.4% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Xinyu Gao 1–0 Hanne Vandewinkel (1).
Statistics
| Xinyu Gao | Hanne Vandewinkel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (9) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-10.1 | 10.1-9.7 |
| Aces | 10.3 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 58.5% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 43% |
H2H · Xinyu Gao 1 – 0 Hanne Vandewinkel (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Xinyu Gao 1–0 Hanne Vandewinkel
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/23 ITF W25 Monastir | 2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Xinyu Gao
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Daria Khomutsianskaya W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/06 | Xiyu Wang WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Modena · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Darya Astakhova WTA Foggia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Harmony Tan French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 19/05 | Darja Vidmanova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/04 | Polona Hercog WTA Huzhou · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 24/04 | Varvara Panshina W50 Baotou · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Meiqi Guo W50 Baotou · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/04 | Sitong Chen W50 Baotou · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Hanne Vandewinkel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Indianna Spink W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 11-1 | W |
| 08/07 | Zoziya Kardava W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Claire Liu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 07/06 | Anouk Koevermans WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/06 | Mona Barthel WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/06 | Kayla Day WTA Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Madison Keys French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Xinyu Gao vs Hanne Vandewinkel?
Our model gives 62% to Hanne Vandewinkel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.