Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 10/07, 09:00
Prediction: Sebastiano Cocola vs Semen Pankin
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Semen Pankin; the market gives 79% to Semen Pankin (odds 1.17).
Over their last 10 matches, Sebastiano Cocola sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Semen Pankin arrives on a 5-5 run.
71%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastiano Cocola 1475 · Semen Pankin 1548
| Sebastiano Cocola | Semen Pankin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Semen Pankin (rating 1475 vs 1548).
- Semen Pankin is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Sebastiano Cocola | Semen Pankin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.3-10.4 | 13.6-11.8 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 58.7% | 66.2% |
| Break % | 36% | 44.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastiano Cocola
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Romain Azais M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 22/06 | Leonardo Malgaroli M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-10 | L |
| 10/06 | Gabriele Piraino M15 Messina · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Niccolo Catini M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-0 | 9-6 | W |
| 04/06 | Luca Potenza M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Conor Gannon M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 27/05 | Leonardo Borrelli M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Silvio Mencaglia M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 28/04 | Tim Handel M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Semen Pankin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Marko Bekeni M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Timofei Derepasko M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Maties Torres Ramis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Giannicola Misasi M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/06 | Harold Mayot Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Luc Koenig Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 29/05 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 27/05 | Harold Mayot Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/05 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastiano Cocola vs Semen Pankin?
Our model gives 71% to Semen Pankin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.