Tennis · W15 Astana · 10/07, 07:00
Prediction: Ingkar Dyussebay vs Aruzhan Sagandikova
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Aruzhan Sagandikova; the market gives 69% to Aruzhan Sagandikova (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Ingkar Dyussebay sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Aruzhan Sagandikova arrives on a 6-4 run.
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ingkar Dyussebay 1485 · Aruzhan Sagandikova 1515
| Ingkar Dyussebay | Aruzhan Sagandikova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Ingkar Dyussebay makes many double faults (7/match).
Statistics
| Ingkar Dyussebay | Aruzhan Sagandikova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-9.8 | 11.5-10.1 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 7 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 62.5% | 58.8% |
| Break % | 51% | 57.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ingkar Dyussebay
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Anastasiya Krymkova W15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/06 | Satima Toregen W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Emily Sartz-Lunde W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Ilay Yoruk W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Anastasiia Kostiushkina W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/05 | Marie Villet W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 19/05 | Anna Kartseva W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/10 | Cheuk Ying Shek ITF W15 Tashkent |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/10 | Ekaterina Maklakova ITF W15 Tashkent |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 30/09 | Stefaniya Neporent W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
1-1 | 6-8 | L |
Aruzhan Sagandikova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Eva Korysheva W15 Astana |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/07 | Valeriia Iushchenko W15 Astana |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Ana Giraldi Requena W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Gala Ivanovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 09/06 | Iva Ivanovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Kristina Kroitor W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Anna Sedysheva W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/05 | Daria Koreshkova W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Nelli Ivanova W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 20/05 | Aleksandra Khomitskaya W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ingkar Dyussebay vs Aruzhan Sagandikova?
Our model gives 62% to Aruzhan Sagandikova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.