Tennis · W50 Corroios-Seixal · 09/07, 11:00
Prediction: Kira Pavlova vs Francisca Jorge
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Francisca Jorge; the market gives 77% to Francisca Jorge (odds 1.22).
Recent form leaves Kira Pavlova with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Francisca Jorge has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
66%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kira Pavlova 1473 · Francisca Jorge 1492
| Kira Pavlova | Francisca Jorge | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Kira Pavlova makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Kira Pavlova | Francisca Jorge | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (9) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.2 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.4-9.6 | 11.2-10.3 |
| Aces | 1 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 56.5% | 60.9% |
| Break % | 53.1% | 51.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kira Pavlova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Gabriela Agra Amorim W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Stephanie Judith Visscher W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Yidi Yang W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Varvara Panshina W50 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Matilde Mariani W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/05 | Gaia Squarcialupi W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/05 | Victoria Milovanova W35 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 09/04 | Katherine Sebov W75 Calvi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/04 | Alana Smith W75 Calvi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/04 | Lidia Encheva W50 Nantes · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Francisca Jorge
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Hiromi Abe W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Elena Micic W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 24/06 | Lina Gjorcheska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 23/06 | Dalma Galfi Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 16/06 | Elena Micic WTA Figueira da Foz · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Aliona Falei W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Valentina Losciale W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/06 | Mariam Bolkvadze W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/06 | Yeon Woo Ku W50 Montemor-o-Novo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 06/06 | Matilde Jorge W50 Montemor-o-Novo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kira Pavlova vs Francisca Jorge?
Our model gives 66% to Francisca Jorge, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.