Prediction: Chloe Paquet vs Lia Karatancheva
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Lia Karatancheva; the market gives 44% to Lia Karatancheva (odds 2.10).
Over their last 10 matches, Chloe Paquet sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Lia Karatancheva arrives on a 7-3 run.
| Chloe Paquet | Lia Karatancheva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lia Karatancheva (rating 1493 vs 1564).
- Head-to-head: Chloe Paquet 0–1 Lia Karatancheva (1).
- Note: Chloe Paquet makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Chloe Paquet | Lia Karatancheva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.8 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-8.9 | 12.2-6.2 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 58.7% | 70.2% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 61.3% |
H2H · Chloe Paquet 0 – 1 Lia Karatancheva (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chloe Paquet 0–1 Lia Karatancheva
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 WTA Antalya Qual | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chloe Paquet
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Justina Mikulskyte W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Ekaterine Gorgodze W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Julia Stusek W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Britt Du Pree W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Amy Sucha W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Julia Grabher WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Amarissa Kiara Toth WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Amy Zhu WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/06 | Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah WTA Modena · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Lia Karatancheva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Iva Primorac Pavicic W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 06/07 | Daniela Vismane W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Charlotte Pikkaart W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 03/07 | Maria Sara Popa W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Nellie Taraba Wallberg W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 7-0 | W |
| 01/07 | Vittoria Paganetti W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Joy De Zeeuw W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Lucie Urbanova W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Gabriela Gregorczyk W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chloe Paquet vs Lia Karatancheva?
Our model gives 51% to Lia Karatancheva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.