Tennis · W75 The Hague · 09/07, 11:00
Prediction: Alena Kovackova vs Mia Ristic
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Alena Kovackova; the market gives 50% to Alena Kovackova (odds 1.83).
On recent form, Alena Kovackova is 8-2 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Mia Ristic 8-2 over theirs.
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alena Kovackova 1567 · Mia Ristic 1533
| Alena Kovackova | Mia Ristic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alena Kovackova | Mia Ristic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-7.1 | 12.3-9.7 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64.1% | 63.7% |
| Break % | 46.6% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alena Kovackova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Antonia Stoyanov W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/07 | Josy Daems W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/07 | Mirjana Jovanovic W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/07 | Weronika Falkowska W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Eva Marie Voracek W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Carolina Alves W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/06 | Valeriya Strakhova W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 20/06 | Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur W35 Bolszewo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Martina Capurro Taborda W35 Bolszewo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Anna Kmiecik W35 Bolszewo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Mia Ristic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Jessica Pieri W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/06 | Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah WTA Brescia · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Deborah Chiesa WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 15/06 | Noemi Basiletti WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Verena Meliss WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 12/06 | Elina Avanesyan W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Ekaterina Kazionova W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/06 | Tena Lukas W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 9-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Lola Radivojevic WTA Makarska · Clay |
1-2 | 17-14 | L |
| 21/05 | Carlota Martinez Cirez W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alena Kovackova vs Mia Ristic?
Our model gives 52% to Alena Kovackova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.