Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 08/07, 13:00
Prediction: Anton Arzhankin vs Mario Arce Fernandez
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Anton Arzhankin; the market gives 79% to Anton Arzhankin (odds 1.17).
Over their last 10 matches, Anton Arzhankin sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Mario Arce Fernandez arrives on a 1-9 run.
72%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Anton Arzhankin 1535 · Mario Arce Fernandez 1450
| Anton Arzhankin | Mario Arce Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Anton Arzhankin (rating 1535 vs 1450).
- Anton Arzhankin is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Anton Arzhankin | Mario Arce Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-10.2 | 8.7-10.8 |
| Aces | 2 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 62.4% | 64.9% |
| Break % | 36.1% | 42.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Anton Arzhankin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-1 | 5-9 | L |
| 09/06 | Simeon Stankovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/06 | Sean Cuenin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Lorenzo Gagliardo M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Sergi Fita Juan M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/06 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 03/06 | Dusan Bazdar M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Alexander Vasilev M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 26/05 | Leon Peranovic M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/04 | Alibek Kachmazov M25 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Mario Arce Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Luis Garcia Paez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Esteban Talavera Cortes M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Esteban Talavera Cortes M25 Loule · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-10 | L |
| 20/04 | Justas Trainauskas M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/04 | Pavel Lagutin M15 Ceuta · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Jose Dominguez Alonso M15 Ceuta · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 13/04 | Ilan Hediger M15 Ceuta · ~Hard |
2-1 | 9-9 | W |
| 10/02 | Sergi Fita Juan M15 Almoradi · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-11 | L |
| 09/12 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine M15 Ceuta · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Anton Arzhankin vs Mario Arce Fernandez?
Our model gives 72% to Anton Arzhankin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.