Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 08/07, 14:30
Prediction: Timofei Derepasko vs Marko Milosavljevic
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Timofei Derepasko; the market gives 81% to Timofei Derepasko (odds 1.14).
Over their last 10 matches, Timofei Derepasko sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Marko Milosavljevic arrives on a 6-4 run.
71%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Timofei Derepasko 1532 · Marko Milosavljevic 1480
| Timofei Derepasko | Marko Milosavljevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Timofei Derepasko (rating 1532 vs 1480).
Statistics
| Timofei Derepasko | Marko Milosavljevic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.9 | 9.6-10 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 65% |
| Break % | 29.8% | 46.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Timofei Derepasko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Dusan Obradovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Semen Pankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Andrea De Marchi M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Boris Butulija M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Luc Wieland M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Matteo Mesaglio M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 02/06 | Daniel Phillips M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Henry Jefferson M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/05 | Cooper Williams M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Preston Brown M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Marko Milosavljevic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Michael Minasyan M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-10 | L |
| 25/06 | Giannicola Misasi M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Victor Ryden M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/06 | Marko Nikolic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-8 | W |
| 09/06 | Niccolo Baroni M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Alec Beckley M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
1-2 | 8-14 | L |
| 18/05 | William Ferguson M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 13/05 | Rocco Piatti M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 11/05 | Ethan Denzel Sibanda M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/12 | Philip Henning M15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Timofei Derepasko vs Marko Milosavljevic?
Our model gives 71% to Timofei Derepasko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.