Tennis · Challenger Iasi · 08/07, 09:00
Prediction: Ilia Simakin vs Lautaro Midon
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Lautaro Midon; the market gives 66% to Lautaro Midon (odds 1.40).
Recent form leaves Ilia Simakin with 2 wins and 8 losses over 10 games; Lautaro Midon has piled up 7-3 in the same span.
63%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilia Simakin 1460 · Lautaro Midon 1529
| Ilia Simakin | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lautaro Midon (rating 1460 vs 1529).
- Lautaro Midon dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 44.3% break avg.
Statistics
| Ilia Simakin | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 30% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.7 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-14.6 | 12.6-10.8 |
| Aces | 9.5 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 0.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 28.5% | 44.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilia Simakin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 30/06 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 28/06 | Radu David Turcanu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 01/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Liam Draxl French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 12/05 | Laurent Lokoli Challenger Tunis · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Lautaro Midon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 03/06 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/06 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/05 | Roberto Carballes Baena French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilia Simakin vs Lautaro Midon?
Our model gives 63% to Lautaro Midon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.