Tennis · W100 Aschaffenburg · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Tena Lukas vs Julia Avdeeva
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Julia Avdeeva; the market gives 58% to Julia Avdeeva (odds 1.61).
On recent form, Tena Lukas is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Julia Avdeeva 6-4 over theirs.
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tena Lukas 1479 · Julia Avdeeva 1556
| Tena Lukas | Julia Avdeeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Julia Avdeeva (rating 1479 vs 1556).
- Julia Avdeeva dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 49.3% break avg.
- Note: Tena Lukas makes many double faults (7/match).
- Note: Julia Avdeeva makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Tena Lukas | Julia Avdeeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-9.2 | 10.4-9.7 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 7 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 63.6% |
| Break % | 52.3% | 49.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tena Lukas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Tina Manescu W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 06/07 | Marcelina Podlinska W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Danka Kovinic W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Mia Ristic W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-9 | L |
| 04/06 | Darja Semenistaja WTA Makarska · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 28/05 | Gabriela Ce W35 Bol · ~Clay |
0-1 | 1-6 | L |
| 27/05 | Weronika Ewald W35 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/05 | Iva Primorac Pavicic W35 Bol · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Giorgia Pedone W35 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/05 | Dora Miskovic W35 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Julia Avdeeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Anna Blinkova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Eva Vedder W75 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 13/06 | Caijsa Wilda Hennemann W75 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Denisa Zoldakova W75 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/06 | Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva W75 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/06 | Alena Kovackova W75 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 10-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Elena Ruxandra Bertea W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Elena Pridankina French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Eleejah Inisan French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Carol Young Suh Lee W75 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tena Lukas vs Julia Avdeeva?
Our model gives 59% to Julia Avdeeva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.