Tennis · W15 Astana · 08/07, 08:30
Prediction: Rinko Matsuda vs Daria Belyaeva
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Rinko Matsuda; the market gives 83% to Rinko Matsuda (odds 1.13).
Over their last 10 matches, Rinko Matsuda sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Daria Belyaeva arrives on a 5-5 run.
72%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rinko Matsuda 1539 · Daria Belyaeva 1476
| Rinko Matsuda | Daria Belyaeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rinko Matsuda (rating 1539 vs 1476).
Statistics
| Rinko Matsuda | Daria Belyaeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-9.2 | 10.1-11.3 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 60.4% | 61.9% |
| Break % | 59% | 37.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rinko Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Anna Snigireva W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 19/06 | Evialina Laskevich W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Hanna Chang W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/06 | Ekaterina Maklakova W35 Zhengzhou · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Hiromi Abe W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Eunchae Kim W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/05 | Fang An Lin W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/05 | Tsuki Shibutani W15 Fukui · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/05 | Sae Noguchi W15 Toyama · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Yui Chikaraishi W15 Toyama · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Daria Belyaeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Julia Khramtsova W15 Astana |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/05 | Kristina Kroitor W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Angelina Wirges W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/04 | Angelina Wirges W15 Pretoria · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 22/04 | Danielle Dai Chapman W15 Pretoria · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/04 | Dune Vaissaud W15 Pretoria · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/03 | Valeria Savinykh W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/03 | Thasaporn Naklo W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 10/03 | Ho Ching Wu W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 04/03 | Junhan Zhang W15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rinko Matsuda vs Daria Belyaeva?
Our model gives 72% to Rinko Matsuda, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.