Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 08/07, 09:00
Prediction: Aaron Gil Garcia vs Dusan Obradovic
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 67% to Dusan Obradovic; the market gives 89% to Dusan Obradovic (odds 1.05).
On recent form, Aaron Gil Garcia is 4-6 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Dusan Obradovic 6-4 over theirs.
79%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aaron Gil Garcia 1439 · Dusan Obradovic 1562
| Aaron Gil Garcia | Dusan Obradovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 11% | 89% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dusan Obradovic (rating 1439 vs 1562).
- Dusan Obradovic is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Aaron Gil Garcia makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Aaron Gil Garcia | Dusan Obradovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (2) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.3-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11.9 | 9.9-6.8 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 5 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 61.8% | 71.2% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 38.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aaron Gil Garcia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Alen Mujakic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Giannicola Misasi M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/04 | Jacob Bradshaw M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Pietro Marino M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/04 | Toufik Sahtali M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 14/04 | Boris Butulija M15 Ceuta · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 07/03 | Juliusz Bienkiewicz UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 06/03 | Marco Migliorati UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/03 | Miko Wassermann UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/03 | Patrick Wyeth UTR Pro Krakow · Carpet |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Dusan Obradovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Timofei Derepasko M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/07 | Kristijan Juhas M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Milos Mikovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | George Lazarov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-0 | 6-2 | W |
| 10/06 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 31/05 | Marek Gengel Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Josip Simundza M15 Brcko · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Alen Mujakic M15 Brcko · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/05 | Sven Corbinais M15 Brcko · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/05 | Antonio Voljavec M15 Brcko · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aaron Gil Garcia vs Dusan Obradovic?
Our model gives 79% to Dusan Obradovic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.