Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 07/07, 10:30
Prediction: Alessandro Bellifemine vs Stefan Kostic
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Alessandro Bellifemine; the market gives 87% to Alessandro Bellifemine (odds 1.08).
On recent form, Alessandro Bellifemine is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Stefan Kostic 2-8 over theirs.
75%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alessandro Bellifemine 1463 · Stefan Kostic 1379
| Alessandro Bellifemine | Stefan Kostic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alessandro Bellifemine (rating 1463 vs 1379).
- Alessandro Bellifemine is in better form: 40% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alessandro Bellifemine | Stefan Kostic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 10% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (8) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 0.3-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.5-10.3 | 6.8-11.9 |
| Aces | 1 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 62.7% |
| Break % | 35.5% | 32.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alessandro Bellifemine
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05 | Maximilian Homberg M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Andrea Fiorentini M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 26/05 | Jonas Gundacker M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/05 | Simone Massucco M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 06/04 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/03 | Gian Marco Ortenzi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/12 | Arda Azkara M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/12 | Alp Horoz M15 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/11 | Gianmarco Ferrari ITF M15 San Gregorio di Catania · Clay |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 22/10 | Viacheslav Bielinskyi ITF M15 Bol · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Stefan Kostic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03 | Adrian Arcon M15 Swan Hill · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/03 | Benjamin O'Connell M15 Wodonga · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/03 | Duje Markovina M25 Launceston |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/02 | Jamie Mackenzie M25 Burnie |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/12 | Jack Bruce-Smith UTR Pro Craigieburn · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/12 | Jera Staley UTR Pro Craigieburn · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 15/12 | Charlie Pade UTR Pro Craigieburn · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/12 | Aryan Karnani UTR Pro Craigieburn · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/12 | Casey Ambler UTR Pro Melbourne · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 12/12 | Chase Zhao UTR Pro Craigieburn · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alessandro Bellifemine vs Stefan Kostic?
Our model gives 75% to Alessandro Bellifemine, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.