Tennis · W100 Aschaffenburg · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Xinxin Yao vs Darya Astakhova
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Xinxin Yao; the market gives 73% to Darya Astakhova (odds 1.28).
Recent form leaves Xinxin Yao with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Darya Astakhova has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
61%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Xinxin Yao 1558 · Darya Astakhova 1535
| Xinxin Yao | Darya Astakhova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Xinxin Yao | Darya Astakhova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-10 | 10.8-11.1 |
| Aces | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 59.5% | 59.4% |
| Break % | 51.3% | 57.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Xinxin Yao
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | Mai Hontama W100 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Yufei Ren W50 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/06 | Reina Goto W50 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 05/06 | JiaYi Wang W50 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/06 | Yexin Ma W50 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Hong Yi Cody Wong W50 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Maria Golovina W35 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/05 | Zongyu Li W35 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Chenting Zhu W35 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/05 | Yujia Huang W35 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
Darya Astakhova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | Luisina Giovannini WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Noemi Basiletti WTA Brescia · Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 06/06 | Tyra Caterina Grant WTA Foggia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Chloe Paquet WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Lisa Pigato WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Xinyu Gao WTA Foggia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Julie Struplova W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/05 | Martyna Kubka W50 Lopota · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Karine Sarkisova W50 Lopota · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/05 | Ekaterina Maklakova W50 Lopota · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Xinxin Yao vs Darya Astakhova?
Our model gives 61% to Darya Astakhova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.