Tennis · W75 The Hague · 08/07, 10:00
Prediction: Sarah Van Emst vs Arantxa Rus
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 64% to Sarah Van Emst; the market gives 71% to Arantxa Rus (odds 1.33).
Recent form leaves Sarah Van Emst with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Arantxa Rus has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarah Van Emst 1551 · Arantxa Rus 1450
| Sarah Van Emst | Arantxa Rus | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarah Van Emst (rating 1551 vs 1450).
- Sarah Van Emst is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Sarah Van Emst makes many double faults (4.6/match).
- Note: Arantxa Rus makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Sarah Van Emst | Arantxa Rus | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 29% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-11.3 | 11.5-12.5 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 65% | 56.4% |
| Break % | 51.2% | 59.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarah Van Emst
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Eva Marie Voracek W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 30/06 | Lavinia Tanasie W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Camilla Zanolini W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/05 | Nastasja Schunk W35 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 22/05 | Eva Marie Voracek W35 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/05 | Jasmijn Gimbrere W35 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/05 | Sina Herrmann W35 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 19/05 | Weronika Ewald W35 Klagenfurt · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/05 | Francesca Curmi W35 Bastad · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 13/05 | Iva Marinkovic W35 Bastad · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Arantxa Rus
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Martina Capurro Taborda W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Veronika Podrez Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Jazmin Ortenzi French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/05 | Kristina Liutova W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Madison Brengle W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/05 | Eryn Cayetano W100 Indian Harbour Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/04 | Anna Rogers W100 Bonita Springs · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Akasha Urhobo W100 Charlottesville |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 22/04 | Alicia Herrero Linana W100 Charlottesville |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 07/04 | Carol Young Suh Lee WTA Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarah Van Emst vs Arantxa Rus?
Our model gives 55% to Arantxa Rus, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.