Prediction: Federica Urgesi vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Federica Urgesi; the market gives 71% to Federica Urgesi (odds 1.33).
Over their last 10 matches, Federica Urgesi sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Lucija Ciric Bagaric arrives on a 5-5 run.
| Federica Urgesi | Lucija Ciric Bagaric | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Federica Urgesi 1–0 Lucija Ciric Bagaric (1).
- Note: Lucija Ciric Bagaric makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Federica Urgesi | Lucija Ciric Bagaric | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-9.6 | 10.1-11.3 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 56.3% | 59.5% |
| Break % | 47.2% | 47.5% |
H2H · Federica Urgesi 1 – 0 Lucija Ciric Bagaric (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Federica Urgesi 1–0 Lucija Ciric Bagaric
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/26 W35 Birmingham | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federica Urgesi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Katerina Tsygourova W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Alessandra Mazzola W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 06/06 | Deborah Chiesa W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/06 | Marta Lombardini W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/06 | Gabriela Ce W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 02/06 | Vivian Wolff W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Veronika Erjavec WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Lucija Ciric Bagaric
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Deborah Chiesa W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 25/06 | Maria Toma W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Matilde Paoletti W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 14/06 | Deborah Chiesa WTA Brescia · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Laura Mair W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Dora Miskovic W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Barbora Palicova WTA Makarska · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Caroline Werner W75 Kosice · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Ayla Aksu W75 Kosice · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 18/05 | Jule Niemeier W75 Kosice · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federica Urgesi vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric?
Our model gives 64% to Federica Urgesi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.