Tennis · W15 Astana · 07/07, 09:00
Prediction: Asylzhan Arystanbekova vs Kristina Kroitor
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 64% to Kristina Kroitor; the market gives 75% to Kristina Kroitor (odds 1.25).
On recent form, Asylzhan Arystanbekova is 2-8 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Kristina Kroitor 7-3 over theirs.
70%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Asylzhan Arystanbekova 1532 · Kristina Kroitor 1629
| Asylzhan Arystanbekova | Kristina Kroitor | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kristina Kroitor (rating 1532 vs 1629).
- Kristina Kroitor is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Asylzhan Arystanbekova makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Asylzhan Arystanbekova | Kristina Kroitor | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.7-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.2 | 11.9-6.3 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 5 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.5% | 71.2% |
| Break % | 53.9% | 55.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Asylzhan Arystanbekova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06 | Alana Subasic W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 04/06 | Satima Toregen W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/06 | Ilay Yoruk W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 29/05 | Deniz Dilek W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Kateryna Diatlova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 27/05 | Elena Utkina W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/05 | Marie Villet W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Anja Wildgruber W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 19/05 | Alexia Lavinia Puiac W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 01/05 | Maria Garcia Cid W15 Madrid |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Kristina Kroitor
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Anna Bazderova W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-0 | 6-0 | W |
| 30/05 | Aruzhan Sagandikova W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/05 | Sevil Yuldasheva W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 28/05 | Alisa Danilova W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/05 | Daria Belyaeva W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/05 | Valentini Grammatikopoulou W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/05 | Ani Amiraghyan W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/05 | Vasilisa Taranova W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Darya Kharlanova W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 07/05 | Vivian Wolff W50 Lopota · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Asylzhan Arystanbekova vs Kristina Kroitor?
Our model gives 70% to Kristina Kroitor, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.