Tennis · W15 Astana · 08/07, 06:00
Prediction: Valeriia Iushchenko vs Aruzhan Sagandikova
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Valeriia Iushchenko; the market gives 75% to Valeriia Iushchenko (odds 1.25).
Over their last 10 matches, Valeriia Iushchenko sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Aruzhan Sagandikova arrives on a 6-4 run.
66%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valeriia Iushchenko 1545 · Aruzhan Sagandikova 1503
| Valeriia Iushchenko | Aruzhan Sagandikova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valeriia Iushchenko (rating 1545 vs 1503).
Statistics
| Valeriia Iushchenko | Aruzhan Sagandikova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 71% (7) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-8.3 | 10.8-10.4 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 60.8% | 55.6% |
| Break % | 54.2% | 54.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valeriia Iushchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05 | Noemi Maines W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-11 | L |
| 07/05 | Claudia Gasparovic W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 06/05 | Leonie Rabl W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/05 | Ekaterina Tupitsyna W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 01/05 | Sofia Martianova W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-7 | W |
| 30/04 | Nelli Ivanova W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 29/04 | Alisa Terentyeva W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/01 | Yufei Ren W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/01 | Meng Yi Chen W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 28/01 | Darya Kharlanova W15 Sharm El Sheikh · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Aruzhan Sagandikova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Ana Giraldi Requena W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Gala Ivanovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 09/06 | Iva Ivanovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Kristina Kroitor W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Anna Sedysheva W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/05 | Daria Koreshkova W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Nelli Ivanova W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 20/05 | Aleksandra Khomitskaya W15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 05/05 | Carolyn Ansari W50 Lopota · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 04/05 | Marina Davtyan W50 Lopota · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valeriia Iushchenko vs Aruzhan Sagandikova?
Our model gives 66% to Valeriia Iushchenko, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.