Tennis · Challenger Iasi · 07/07, 13:40
Prediction: David Poljak vs Gustavo Heide
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 69% to Gustavo Heide; the market gives 94% to Gustavo Heide (odds 1.03).
On recent form, David Poljak is 3-7 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Gustavo Heide 7-3 over theirs.
82%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · David Poljak 1476 · Gustavo Heide 1611
| David Poljak | Gustavo Heide | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 6% | 94% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gustavo Heide (rating 1476 vs 1611).
- Gustavo Heide is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Gustavo Heide makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| David Poljak | Gustavo Heide | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12.1 | 12-9.7 |
| Aces | 4 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 75% |
| Break % | 26.8% | 35% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
David Poljak
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 28/06 | Dominik Palan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 24/05 | Peter Makk Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/03 | Kenny de Schepper Challenger Cherbourg · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 02/02 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Cesenatico · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/02 | Gabriele Bosio Challenger Cesenatico · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/12 | Michal Lusovsky Czechia Extraliga |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/11 | James Trotter Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Gustavo Heide
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Jan Choinski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in David Poljak vs Gustavo Heide?
Our model gives 82% to Gustavo Heide, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.