Tennis · Challenger Iasi · 07/07, 13:40
Prediction: Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg vs Alexander Donski
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Alexander Donski; the market gives 69% to Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg sits at 2-8 (W-L), while Alexander Donski arrives on a 5-5 run.
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg 1460 · Alexander Donski 1539
| Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | Alexander Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Donski (rating 1460 vs 1539).
- Alexander Donski is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg makes many double faults (4.7/match).
- Note: Alexander Donski makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | Alexander Donski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 30% (10) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-12.7 | 13-11.5 |
| Aces | 7.8 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 30.2% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 24/06 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/06 | Clement Tabur Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Borna Gojo French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Tunis · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 04/05 | Martin Krumich Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Alexander Donski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Jiri Cizek Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Erik Grevelius Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Filip Pieczonka Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Philip Henning Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 06/06 | Khololwam Montsi Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Tuncay Duran Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/06 | Edward Winter Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 02/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg vs Alexander Donski?
Our model gives 55% to Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.