Tennis · W100 Aschaffenburg · 06/07, 14:00
Prediction: Maria Florencia Urrutia vs Kailey Evans
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 58% to Maria Florencia Urrutia; the market gives 63% to Maria Florencia Urrutia (odds 1.50).
Recent form leaves Maria Florencia Urrutia with 5 wins and 5 losses over 10 games; Kailey Evans has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
60%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Florencia Urrutia 1553 · Kailey Evans 1500
| Maria Florencia Urrutia | Kailey Evans | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maria Florencia Urrutia (rating 1553 vs 1500).
Statistics
| Maria Florencia Urrutia | Kailey Evans | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-8.6 | 8.5-9.3 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 57.5% | 57.7% |
| Break % | 51.3% | 41% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Florencia Urrutia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele W15 Luque · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 19/06 | Maria F Herazo Gonzalez W15 Luque · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/06 | Isabella Barrera Aguirre W15 Luque · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Jennifer Rosa Dourado W15 Luque · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 12/06 | Antonia Rivera W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Sofia Da Cruz Mendonca W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/06 | Laura Badia W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 22/05 | Katrina Scott W50 Pelham · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-8 | L |
| 21/05 | Capucine Jauffret W50 Pelham · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez W50 Pelham · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Kailey Evans
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Laima Vladson W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Anja Wildgruber W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Victoria Pohle W15 Kamen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Arina Kostina W15 Kamen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Stefaniya Pushkar W15 Kamen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Laura Mair W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/06 | Tatum Evans W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 04/06 | Jaedan Brown W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Amy Lee W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/05 | Allison Wang W15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Florencia Urrutia vs Kailey Evans?
Our model gives 60% to Maria Florencia Urrutia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.