Tennis · W100 Aschaffenburg · 06/07, 12:30
Prediction: Marcelina Podlinska vs Tena Lukas
See it on the live radar ↗Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Marcelina Podlinska; the market gives 71% to Tena Lukas (odds 1.33).
Over their last 10 matches, Marcelina Podlinska sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Tena Lukas arrives on a 5-5 run.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marcelina Podlinska 1497 · Tena Lukas 1475
| Marcelina Podlinska | Tena Lukas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Tena Lukas makes many double faults (6/match).
Statistics
| Marcelina Podlinska | Tena Lukas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-10.2 | 9.7-8.7 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 6 |
| 1st serve % | 57% | 66.9% |
| Break % | 55.8% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marcelina Podlinska
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Emilija Tverijonaite W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Polina Bakhmutkina W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Nadia Affelt W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Briana Szabo W35 Bolszewo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 17/06 | Daria Gorska W35 Bolszewo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/05 | Lucie Nguyen Tan W75 Saint-Gaudens · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/05 | Astrid Lew Yan Foon W75 Saint-Gaudens · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/05 | Sarah Boussaffir W75 Saint-Gaudens · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 30/04 | Selina Dal W15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Tena Lukas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Danka Kovinic W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Mia Ristic W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-9 | L |
| 04/06 | Darja Semenistaja WTA Makarska · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 28/05 | Gabriela Ce W35 Bol · ~Clay |
0-1 | 1-6 | L |
| 27/05 | Weronika Ewald W35 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/05 | Iva Primorac Pavicic W35 Bol · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Giorgia Pedone W35 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/05 | Dora Miskovic W35 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/05 | Erika Andreeva W75 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Joanna Garland W75 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marcelina Podlinska vs Tena Lukas?
Our model gives 60% to Tena Lukas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.