Tennis · W75 The Hague · 06/07, 15:00
Prediction: Zhibek Kulambayeva vs Marie Vogt
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Marie Vogt; the market gives 59% to Zhibek Kulambayeva (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, Zhibek Kulambayeva sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Marie Vogt arrives on a 8-2 run.
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zhibek Kulambayeva 1525 · Marie Vogt 1575
| Zhibek Kulambayeva | Marie Vogt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marie Vogt (rating 1525 vs 1575).
Statistics
| Zhibek Kulambayeva | Marie Vogt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-9.3 | 12.8-8 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 62% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 48.8% | 62.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zhibek Kulambayeva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Amelie Van Impe W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Anouck Vrancken Peeters W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 02/07 | Aran Teixido Garcia W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Tilwith Di Girolami W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Daria Kuczer W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Hanna Jankowska W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 19/06 | Selena Janicijevic W50 Haskovo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Valeriia Artemeva W50 Haskovo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Laura Hietaranta W50 Haskovo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 26/05 | Alevtina Ibragimova W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Marie Vogt
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Merel Hoedt W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Danka Kovinic W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Emma Sophie Glaser W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Antonia Stoyanov W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 20/06 | Lisa Claeys W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Mia Slama W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Kaat Coppez W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/05 | Radka Zelnickova W15 Szentendre · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/05 | Pia Lovric W15 Szentendre · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zhibek Kulambayeva vs Marie Vogt?
Our model gives 52% to Zhibek Kulambayeva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.