Tennis · W75 The Hague · 06/07, 15:00
Prediction: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Lian Tran
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur; the market gives 79% to Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur (odds 1.17).
Recent form leaves Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur with 8 wins and 2 losses over 10 games; Lian Tran has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
71%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 1579 · Lian Tran 1503
| Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | Lian Tran | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur (rating 1579 vs 1503).
- Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Lian Tran makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur | Lian Tran | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-6.5 | 8.9-10.9 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Double faults | 1 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 62% | 52.6% |
| Break % | 49.8% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Charlotte Van Zonneveld W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 25/06 | Barbora Palicova W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Lia Karatancheva W50 Gdansk · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 21/06 | Julie Pastikova W35 Bolszewo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Alena Kovackova W35 Bolszewo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Weronika Falkowska W35 Bolszewo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/06 | Ivana Sebestova W35 Bolszewo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Amy Sucha W35 Bolszewo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Isabella Maria Serban W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 19/05 | Luisa Fusil W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Lian Tran
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Anastasia Abbagnato W75 The Hague |
2-1 | 14-17 | W |
| 01/07 | Maria Sara Popa W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Carla Markus W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/06 | Isis Louise Van den Broek W15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-11 | L |
| 26/06 | Dune Vaissaud W15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Madelief Hageman W15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Anna Ozerova W15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/05 | Ruby Cooling W35 Nottingham |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Iva Marinkovic W15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Luisina Giovannini WTA Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Lian Tran?
Our model gives 71% to Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.