Tennis · Challenger Iasi · 08/07, 09:00
Prediction: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Lautaro Midon
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 64% to Radu Mihai Papoe; the market gives 50% to Radu Mihai Papoe (odds 1.83).
Over their last 10 matches, Radu Mihai Papoe sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Lautaro Midon arrives on a 6-4 run.
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Radu Mihai Papoe 1604 · Lautaro Midon 1502
| Radu Mihai Papoe | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Radu Mihai Papoe (rating 1604 vs 1502).
- Lautaro Midon dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 44.9% break avg.
- Radu Mihai Papoe is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Radu Mihai Papoe | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 90% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.3 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-5.6 | 12.7-11.8 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 52.3% | 44.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Radu Mihai Papoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 22/06 | John Sperle Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/06 | Daniel Uta Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/06 | Anas Mazdrashki M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 10/06 | Maximilian Figl M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/06 | Stefan Horia Haita M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/06 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/06 | Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 04/06 | Dragos Nicolae Cazacu M25 Bistrita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-2 | W |
Lautaro Midon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 03/06 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/06 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 19/05 | Roberto Carballes Baena French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Radu Mihai Papoe vs Lautaro Midon?
Our model gives 56% to Radu Mihai Papoe, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.