Tennis · Challenger Iasi · 08/07, 09:00
Prediction: Tomas Barrios Vera vs Ilia Simakin
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Tomas Barrios Vera; the market gives 75% to Tomas Barrios Vera (odds 1.25).
On recent form, Tomas Barrios Vera is 7-3 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Ilia Simakin 2-8 over theirs.
68%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tomas Barrios Vera 1502 · Ilia Simakin 1437
| Tomas Barrios Vera | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tomas Barrios Vera (rating 1502 vs 1437).
- Tomas Barrios Vera dominates on serve: 11.9 aces and 43.5% break avg.
- Tomas Barrios Vera is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Tomas Barrios Vera | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 22% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.3 | 0.9-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-12.8 | 12.5-14.2 |
| Aces | 11.9 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 71.5% |
| Break % | 43.5% | 25.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tomas Barrios Vera
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Dane Sweeny Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Paul Jubb Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Marco Cecchinato Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Thanasi Kokkinakis Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Luka Pavlovic French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/05 | Harold Mayot French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 14/05 | Emilio Nava Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 13/05 | Nishesh Basavareddy Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/05 | Michael Zheng Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Ilia Simakin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 28/06 | Radu David Turcanu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 01/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Liam Draxl French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 12/05 | Laurent Lokoli Challenger Tunis · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 23/04 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tomas Barrios Vera vs Ilia Simakin?
Our model gives 68% to Tomas Barrios Vera, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.