Tennis · Challenger Iasi · 08/07, 09:00
Prediction: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Luka Pavlovic
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Luka Pavlovic; the market gives 50% to Luka Pavlovic (odds 1.83).
Over their last 10 matches, Frederico Ferreira Silva sits at 4-6 (W-L), while Luka Pavlovic arrives on a 5-5 run.
54%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Frederico Ferreira Silva 1445 · Luka Pavlovic 1508
| Frederico Ferreira Silva | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luka Pavlovic (rating 1445 vs 1508).
- Luka Pavlovic is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Frederico Ferreira Silva | Luka Pavlovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 22% (9) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-12.8 | 12.5-12.5 |
| Aces | 5.8 | 16.8 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 74.5% |
| Break % | 29.5% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Frederico Ferreira Silva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Olle Wallin Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Matej Dodig Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 18-17 | L |
| 17/06 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/06 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 25/05 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 18/05 | Federico Agustin Gomez French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 12/05 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 07/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Luka Pavlovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Mark Lajal Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 24/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 22/05 | Darwin Blanch French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/05 | Tomas Barrios Vera French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Harry Wendelken French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Luka Pavlovic?
Our model gives 54% to Luka Pavlovic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.