Tennis · W75 The Hague · 05/07, 12:30
Prediction: Merel Hoedt vs Marie Vogt
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Marie Vogt; the market gives 69% to Marie Vogt (odds 1.36).
Over their last 10 matches, Merel Hoedt sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Marie Vogt arrives on a 8-2 run.
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Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Merel Hoedt 1470 · Marie Vogt 1580
| Merel Hoedt | Marie Vogt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marie Vogt (rating 1470 vs 1580).
- Marie Vogt is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Merel Hoedt makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Merel Hoedt | Marie Vogt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-11.4 | 12.8-8.3 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 1 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 59.5% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 47.9% | 60.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Merel Hoedt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Dune Vaissaud W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 26/06 | Charlotte Narti W15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Jade Groen W15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Estella Jaeger W15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Adrienn Nagy W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Valeriia Artemeva W15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Tilwith Di Girolami W15 Reichstett · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 17/04 | Alice Tubello W50 Bujumbura · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Julia Adams W50 Bujumbura · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/04 | Lorena Schaedel W50 Bujumbura · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Marie Vogt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Danka Kovinic W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Emma Sophie Glaser W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Antonia Stoyanov W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 20/06 | Lisa Claeys W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Mia Slama W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Kaat Coppez W15 Dinard · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/05 | Radka Zelnickova W15 Szentendre · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/05 | Pia Lovric W15 Szentendre · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/05 | Marianne Argyrokastriti W15 Szentendre · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Merel Hoedt vs Marie Vogt?
Our model gives 67% to Marie Vogt, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.