Tennis · W75 The Hague · 05/07, 14:00
Prediction: Nina Vargova vs Jade Groen
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Nina Vargova; the market gives 87% to Nina Vargova (odds 1.08).
Recent form leaves Nina Vargova with 9 wins and 1 losses over 10 games; Jade Groen has piled up 3-7 in the same span.
75%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nina Vargova 1560 · Jade Groen 1483
| Nina Vargova | Jade Groen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nina Vargova (rating 1560 vs 1483).
- Note: Jade Groen makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Nina Vargova | Jade Groen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-6.5 | 9.7-10.7 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.7% | 54.6% |
| Break % | 60.3% | 48.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nina Vargova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Carmen Andreea Herea W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 21/06 | Daria Egorova W35 Mohammedia · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Martina Colmegna W35 Mohammedia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/06 | Vaidehee Chaudhari W35 Mohammedia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 18/06 | Anna Shkutova W35 Mohammedia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/06 | Soha Sadiq W35 Mohammedia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/06 | Luna Vujovic W35 Casablanca · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Martina Colmegna W35 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/06 | Valentini Grammatikopoulou W35 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Daria Egorova W35 Casablanca · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Jade Groen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Linea Bajraliu W35 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Merel Hoedt W15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Daniela Vismane W15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 13/11 | DJ Bennett ITF W15 Clemson · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/11 | Bella Bergkvist Larsson ITF W15 Clemson · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 31/10 | Janae Preston ITF W15 Sumter · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/10 | Luca Udvardy ITF W15 Sumter · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/10 | Emily De Oliveira ITF W15 Sumter · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/07 | Mina Hodzic ITF W35 Knokke-Heist |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Mana Kawamura ITF W35 Knokke-Heist |
2-1 | 10-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nina Vargova vs Jade Groen?
Our model gives 75% to Nina Vargova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.