Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 05/07, 10:00
Prediction: Timofei Derepasko vs Dusan Obradovic
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Timofei Derepasko; the market gives 73% to Dusan Obradovic (odds 1.28).
Recent form leaves Timofei Derepasko with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Dusan Obradovic has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Timofei Derepasko 1546 · Dusan Obradovic 1531
| Timofei Derepasko | Dusan Obradovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Timofei Derepasko | Dusan Obradovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (5) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-9.8 | 9.7-7.6 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 32.3% | 36.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Timofei Derepasko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Semen Pankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Andrea De Marchi M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Boris Butulija M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Luc Wieland M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Matteo Mesaglio M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 02/06 | Daniel Phillips M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Henry Jefferson M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/05 | Cooper Williams M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Preston Brown M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/05 | Matt Kleiman M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Dusan Obradovic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Kristijan Juhas M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Milos Mikovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | George Lazarov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-0 | 6-2 | W |
| 10/06 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 31/05 | Marek Gengel Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/05 | Josip Simundza M15 Brcko · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Alen Mujakic M15 Brcko · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/05 | Sven Corbinais M15 Brcko · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/05 | Antonio Voljavec M15 Brcko · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 24/05 | Eric Vanshelboim M15 Doboj · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Timofei Derepasko vs Dusan Obradovic?
Our model gives 62% to Dusan Obradovic, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.