Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · 05/07, 01:00
Prediction: Paula Dougherty vs Esther Vyrlan
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Paula Dougherty; the market gives 71% to Paula Dougherty (odds 1.33).
On recent form, Paula Dougherty is 2-8 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Esther Vyrlan 3-7 over theirs.
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Paula Dougherty 1445 · Esther Vyrlan 1410
| Paula Dougherty | Esther Vyrlan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Paula Dougherty makes many double faults (8.9/match).
- Note: Esther Vyrlan makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Paula Dougherty | Esther Vyrlan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.5 | 0.5-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-11.1 | 7.6-11.6 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 8.9 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 56.7% | 50.3% |
| Break % | 45% | 52.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Paula Dougherty
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Eduarda Piai UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Daniela Borruel UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Camille Kiss UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Natalie Stasny UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Lillie Murphy UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Alicia Herrero Linana UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Linda Ziets Segura UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/08 | My-Anh Holmes UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Sasha Dimitrov UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Olivia Carneiro UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
Esther Vyrlan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Ares Teixido Garcia UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Lexie Weir UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Emily Deming UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Allison Isaacs UTR Pro San Luis Obispo Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Kate Gardiner UTR Pro San Luis Obispo Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Natalie Lynch UTR Pro San Luis Obispo Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/05 | Catherine Rennard UTR Pro Tuscaloosa Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/05 | Savannah Webster UTR Pro Tuscaloosa Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/05 | Germany Davis UTR Pro Tuscaloosa Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Mckenzie Shelton UTR Pro Tuscaloosa Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Paula Dougherty vs Esther Vyrlan?
Our model gives 64% to Paula Dougherty, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.