Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 04/07, 10:00
Prediction: Semen Pankin vs Timofei Derepasko
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Semen Pankin; the market gives 78% to Semen Pankin (odds 1.20).
Over their last 10 matches, Semen Pankin sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Timofei Derepasko arrives on a 5-5 run.
68%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Semen Pankin 1558 · Timofei Derepasko 1522
| Semen Pankin | Timofei Derepasko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Semen Pankin 0–1 Timofei Derepasko (1).
Statistics
| Semen Pankin | Timofei Derepasko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (3) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-11.5 | 10.8-10.4 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 42.6% | 32.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
H2H · Semen Pankin 0 – 1 Timofei Derepasko (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Semen Pankin 0–1 Timofei Derepasko
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/25 M15 Kayseri | 1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Semen Pankin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 02/07 | Maties Torres Ramis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Giannicola Misasi M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/06 | Harold Mayot Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Luc Koenig Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 29/05 | Eliakim Coulibaly Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 27/05 | Harold Mayot Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 25/05 | Luca Castelnuovo Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/05 | Vadym Ursu M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Yanki Erel M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Timofei Derepasko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Andrea De Marchi M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Boris Butulija M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Luc Wieland M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Matteo Mesaglio M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 02/06 | Daniel Phillips M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Henry Jefferson M15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 22/05 | Cooper Williams M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Preston Brown M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/05 | Matt Kleiman M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/05 | James Weber M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Semen Pankin vs Timofei Derepasko?
Our model gives 68% to Semen Pankin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.