Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · 04/07, 02:00
Prediction: Eduarda Piai vs Paula Dougherty
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Eduarda Piai; the market gives 77% to Eduarda Piai (odds 1.22).
Recent form leaves Eduarda Piai with 3 wins and 7 losses over 10 games; Paula Dougherty has piled up 2-8 in the same span.
68%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eduarda Piai 1500 · Paula Dougherty 1453
| Eduarda Piai | Paula Dougherty | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eduarda Piai (rating 1500 vs 1453).
- Note: Eduarda Piai makes many double faults (5.1/match).
- Note: Paula Dougherty makes many double faults (9.4/match).
Statistics
| Eduarda Piai | Paula Dougherty | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-11 | 9.5-11.3 |
| Aces | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 5.1 | 9.4 |
| 1st serve % | 61.1% | 58.4% |
| Break % | 47.5% | 42.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eduarda Piai
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Lily Fairclough UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Emily Meng UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Sabritt Dozier UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 17/05 | Sophia Dumitrascu UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 17/05 | Maily Huynh UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/05 | Zdena Safarova UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Gala Arangio UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 12/05 | Yen Nhi Huynh UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 11/05 | Sonya Goldberg UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/04 | Katiana Gonzalez UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Paula Dougherty
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Daniela Borruel UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Camille Kiss UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Natalie Stasny UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Lillie Murphy UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Alicia Herrero Linana UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Linda Ziets Segura UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/08 | My-Anh Holmes UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Sasha Dimitrov UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Olivia Carneiro UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Mai Nguyen UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eduarda Piai vs Paula Dougherty?
Our model gives 68% to Eduarda Piai, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.