Tennis · W15 Mogyorod · 03/07, 10:00
Prediction: Marie Mettraux vs Adrienn Nagy
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Marie Mettraux; the market gives 63% to Adrienn Nagy (odds 1.50).
On recent form, Marie Mettraux is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Adrienn Nagy 8-2 over theirs.
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marie Mettraux 1578 · Adrienn Nagy 1562
| Marie Mettraux | Adrienn Nagy | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Adrienn Nagy makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Marie Mettraux | Adrienn Nagy | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-8.6 | 13.1-9.8 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 58.6% | 62.4% |
| Break % | 63.2% | 60.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marie Mettraux
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Cara Korhonen W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Lucie Petruzelova W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 20/06 | Amelie Justine Hejtmanek W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Eugenia Zozaya Menendez W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Nuria Sarganella Verdu W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-0 | 6-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Sara Kastakova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Ksenia Zaytseva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Emma Ottavia Ghirardato W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 11/06 | Aurora Corvi W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-0 | 6-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Nala Kovacic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Adrienn Nagy
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Anna Mihalka W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Panna Bartha W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 20/06 | Julia Stusek W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 19/06 | Eva Marie Voracek W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/06 | Tina Manescu W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 16/06 | Merel Hoedt W35 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/06 | Eszter Meri W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 08/06 | Enola Chiesa W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/06 | Noa Krznaric W100 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 04/05 | Diana Martynov W75 Saint-Gaudens · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marie Mettraux vs Adrienn Nagy?
Our model gives 56% to Adrienn Nagy, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.