Tennis · M25 Marburg · 02/07, 14:00
Prediction: Michel Hopp vs Lasse Poertner
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Lasse Poertner; the market gives 50% to Lasse Poertner (odds 1.83).
Over their last 10 matches, Michel Hopp sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Lasse Poertner arrives on a 7-3 run.
51%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michel Hopp 1532 · Lasse Poertner 1544
| Michel Hopp | Lasse Poertner | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Michel Hopp | Lasse Poertner | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-9.6 | 11.7-8.8 |
| Aces | 2 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 66% |
| Break % | 47.2% | 62% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michel Hopp
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Federico Iannaccone M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
| 26/06 | Oleksii Krutykh M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Marcus Walters M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 23/06 | Nikolai Barsukov M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/06 | Niels McDonald M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Louis Wessels M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
1-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 03/06 | Tom Sickenberger M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/05 | Max Wiskandt M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Astro Pilipovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/05 | Aleksandar Mihailovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
Lasse Poertner
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Julien Penzlin M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Julian Forer M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/06 | Nikolai Barsukov M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
0-1 | 6-7 | L |
| 15/06 | Kim Johannes Niethammer M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/06 | Sander Jong Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Florian Broska Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Mac Visser M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Dorian Tremblay M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
2-1 | 11-8 | W |
| 14/11 | Gray Kelley UTR Pro Malibu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/11 | Ford McCollum UTR Pro Malibu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michel Hopp vs Lasse Poertner?
Our model gives 51% to Lasse Poertner, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.