Tennis · W15 Kursumlijska Banja · 02/07, 12:00
Prediction: Viktoria Veleva vs Dunja Maric
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Dunja Maric; the market gives 88% to Dunja Maric (odds 1.06).
Over their last 10 matches, Viktoria Veleva sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Dunja Maric arrives on a 7-3 run.
76%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Viktoria Veleva 1475 · Dunja Maric 1555
| Viktoria Veleva | Dunja Maric | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dunja Maric (rating 1475 vs 1555).
- Dunja Maric is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Viktoria Veleva makes many double faults (9.7/match).
Statistics
| Viktoria Veleva | Dunja Maric | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.1-11.5 | 13.5-11 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 9.7 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 50.2% | 65.4% |
| Break % | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Viktoria Veleva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Mariya Yemshanova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Sofia Rocchetti W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Darya Velikova W50 Haskovo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 07/05 | Oana Georgeta Simion W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Mariia Masiianskaia W35 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 30/04 | Andrea Lola Popovic W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/04 | Amira Badawi W15 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 11/03 | Katharina Hobgarski W50 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/03 | Julia Stamatova W50 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/03 | Allura Zamarripa W50 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
Dunja Maric
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Sophie Luescher W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Nadia Podoroska W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 11/06 | Miriana Tona W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/06 | Federica Bilardo W35 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 22/05 | Ipek Oz W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 21/05 | Isabella Maria Serban W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 20/05 | Alevtina Ibragimova W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 19/05 | Meta Marenk W50 Portoroz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/05 | Briana Szabo W15 Beograd · ~Clay |
0-1 | 6-7 | L |
| 07/05 | Julia Stamatova W15 Beograd · ~Clay |
1-1 | 19-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Viktoria Veleva vs Dunja Maric?
Our model gives 76% to Dunja Maric, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.