Tennis · UTR Pro Boca Raton · 02/07, 15:00
Prediction: Alvaro Frutos Alonso vs Carter Craig
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Alvaro Frutos Alonso; the market gives 59% to Carter Craig (odds 1.57).
Over their last 10 matches, Alvaro Frutos Alonso sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Carter Craig arrives on a 5-5 run.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alvaro Frutos Alonso 1531 · Carter Craig 1495
| Alvaro Frutos Alonso | Carter Craig | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alvaro Frutos Alonso | Carter Craig | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-9.6 | 11.3-11.5 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 0 |
| Double faults | 0.8 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.5% | 54.3% |
| Break % | 19.3% | 51.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alvaro Frutos Alonso
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Mattia Akcan UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Andrew Kotzen UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Agustin Mastri UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Maximo Zeitune Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/12 | Santiago Franchini UTR Pro Tennis Series Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 06/12 | Julian Cundom UTR Pro Tennis Series Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/12 | Ramiro Amarilla UTR Pro Tennis Series Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/12 | Alex Santino Nunez Vera UTR Pro Tennis Series Buenos Aires · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 03/12 | Lautaro Agustin Falabella UTR Pro Tennis Series Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/12 | Francisco Tomas Geschwind UTR Pro Tennis Series Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Carter Craig
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Junghee You UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Kristof Minarik UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Lorenzo Esquici UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/03 | Jan Sebesta UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 27/03 | Donald Nikolas Stoot UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/03 | Riccardo Trione UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/03 | Daniel Cohen UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 23/03 | Benjamin Torres UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/03 | Didrik Liljekvist UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 06/03 | Patrick Daciek UTR Pro Boca Raton · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alvaro Frutos Alonso vs Carter Craig?
Our model gives 53% to Carter Craig, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.