Tennis · W15 Mogyorod · 02/07, 09:00
Prediction: Marie Mettraux vs Cara Korhonen
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Marie Mettraux; the market gives 88% to Marie Mettraux (odds 1.06).
Recent form leaves Marie Mettraux with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Cara Korhonen has piled up 4-6 in the same span.
78%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marie Mettraux 1590 · Cara Korhonen 1486
| Marie Mettraux | Cara Korhonen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marie Mettraux (rating 1590 vs 1486).
- Marie Mettraux is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Marie Mettraux | Cara Korhonen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 0.8-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-8.9 | 8.9-10.3 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 0.9 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 58.2% | 63.3% |
| Break % | 57.8% | 31.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marie Mettraux
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Lucie Petruzelova W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 20/06 | Amelie Justine Hejtmanek W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Eugenia Zozaya Menendez W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Nuria Sarganella Verdu W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-0 | 6-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Sara Kastakova W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Ksenia Zaytseva W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Emma Ottavia Ghirardato W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 11/06 | Aurora Corvi W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-0 | 6-5 | W |
| 10/06 | Nala Kovacic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/05 | Luna Vujovic W15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Cara Korhonen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Kitti Molnar W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/06 | Given Roach UTR Pro Budapest Women · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 27/06 | Diana Smolinskaya UTR Pro Budapest Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Asuncion Jadue UTR Pro Budapest Women · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Nikola Daubnerova UTR Pro Budapest Women · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Hannah Read UTR Pro Budapest Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Izabela Heinzova UTR Pro Budapest Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/03 | Ha Eum Lee W15 Swan Hill · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/03 | Nanari Katsumi W15 Swan Hill · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/03 | Nanari Katsumi W15 Wodonga · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marie Mettraux vs Cara Korhonen?
Our model gives 78% to Marie Mettraux, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.