Tennis · UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · 03/07, 02:00
Prediction: Daniela Borruel vs Paula Dougherty
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 68% to Daniela Borruel; the market gives 87% to Daniela Borruel (odds 1.08).
Over their last 10 matches, Daniela Borruel sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Paula Dougherty arrives on a 3-7 run.
78%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniela Borruel 1587 · Paula Dougherty 1456
| Daniela Borruel | Paula Dougherty | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniela Borruel (rating 1587 vs 1456).
- Daniela Borruel is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Paula Dougherty makes many double faults (9.7/match).
Statistics
| Daniela Borruel | Paula Dougherty | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-6.7 | 10.3-11.7 |
| Aces | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 9.7 |
| 1st serve % | 61.2% | 57.5% |
| Break % | 57.8% | 46.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniela Borruel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Natalie Stasny UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 01/07 | Camille Kiss UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/06 | Anastasia Grechkina UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Agnes Guggenheim UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 11/06 | Kohana Darroch UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 10/06 | Alexandra Wolf UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/06 | Aya Manning UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Veronika Miroshnichenko UTR Pro Los Angeles Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Camille Kiss UTR Pro Los Angeles Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Patsy Daughters UTR Pro Los Angeles Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Paula Dougherty
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Camille Kiss UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Natalie Stasny UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/08 | Lillie Murphy UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Alicia Herrero Linana UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Linda Ziets Segura UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/08 | My-Anh Holmes UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Sasha Dimitrov UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/08 | Olivia Carneiro UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Mai Nguyen UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 08/08 | Hailey Murphy UTR Pro Athens Women · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniela Borruel vs Paula Dougherty?
Our model gives 78% to Daniela Borruel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.