Handball · Portugal 2a Divisao · 10/10, 20:00

Prediction: Padroense vs Academico FC

Team pages: Padroense · Academico FC

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.8Total

Padroense29.8

Academico FC29

1X2

70% 30%

Padroense Academico FC

Markets

Over 56.5 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

Padroense 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Academico FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Padroense 1–2–2 Academico FC (5 last)

Padroense33-25Academico FC
Academico FC30-30Padroense
Padroense28-29Academico FC
Padroense27-27Academico FC
Academico FC32-23Padroense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Padroense 1517 · Academico FC 1512

	Padroense	Academico FC
Our model	61%	39%
Market	69%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 58.8 points · Bet365 line 56.5 · +2.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.8Padroense 29.8 · Academico FC 29

Over / Under 56.5Over · 75%recent trend · ~58.5 pts · strength 2

Match keys

Padroense is a clear favourite (70% market).
H2H favours Academico FC: 2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Padroense	Academico FC
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.6 / 28.7	30.3 / 28.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	29.4 / 28.8	28.4 / 28.8
Est. result	30	29

Est. total58.8

Line O/U56.5

Diff.2.3

Over / Under75% / 25%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.32

X9.00

24.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.85

2 (+3.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 56.51.85

Under 56.51.85

Diff.: 2.7 · Est. total: 59.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.32 → 1.32	Bet365 1.32
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	4.25 → 4.25	Bet365 4.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:06 +14’	1.32	9.00	4.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Padroense 1–2–2 Academico FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Portugal 2a Divisao	Padroense	33-25	Academico FC
03/05/26 Portugal 2a Divisao	Academico FC	30-30	Padroense
03/02/25 Portugal 3a Divisao	Padroense	28-29	Academico FC
22/06/22 Portugal 3a Divisao	Padroense	27-27	Academico FC
23/11/19 Portugal 3a Divisao	Academico FC	32-23	Padroense

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Padroense	Academico FC
Aguas Santas B	29-28 W	25-30 L
CDC Santana	23-24 L	33-31 W
AD Afifense	45-24 W	44-26 W
AC Vermoim	23-21 W	24-22 W
Gondomar Cultural	32-31 W	24-33 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Padroense (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Padroense

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/10	Aguas Santas B Portugal 2a Divisao	29-28	W
03/10	CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao	23-24	L
26/09	AC Lamego Portugal 2a Divisao	32-34	L
13/06	Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao	33-25	W
10/06	CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao	30-33	L
06/06	AD Afifense Portugal 2a Divisao	45-24	W
04/06	AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao	23-21	W
30/05	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	32-31	W
09/05	Aguas Santas B Portugal 2a Divisao	29-37	L
03/05	Academico FC Portugal 2a Divisao	30-30	D

Academico FC

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/10	AC Vermoim Portugal 2a Divisao	24-22	W
26/09	Aguas Santas B Portugal 2a Divisao	25-30	L
13/06	Padroense Portugal 2a Divisao	25-33	L
10/06	AD Afifense Portugal 2a Divisao	44-26	W
06/06	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	24-33	L
04/06	Aguas Santas B Portugal 2a Divisao	34-34	D
30/05	CDC Santana Portugal 2a Divisao	33-31	W
03/05	Padroense Portugal 2a Divisao	30-30	D
01/05	AD Afifense Portugal 2a Divisao	36-21	W
25/04	Gondomar Cultural Portugal 2a Divisao	28-28	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Padroense vs Academico FC?

Our model gives 70% to Padroense.

How many points are expected in Padroense vs Academico FC?

The model estimates 58.8 total points (Padroense 29.8 · Academico FC 29).

Over or under 56.5 points?

Recent history points to over 56.5 points (75%).