Handball · Portugal 2a Divisao · 10/10, 19:30

Prediction: GM 1 Dezembro vs Alto Moinho

Team pages: GM 1 Dezembro · Alto Moinho

Prediction summary

Estimated points

58.1Total

GM 1 Dezembro29.9

Alto Moinho28.2

1X2

69% 31%

GM 1 Dezembro Alto Moinho

Recent form · 10 last

GM 1 Dezembro 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWWWW

Alto Moinho 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLLDWL

Head-to-head

GM 1 Dezembro 4–1–1 Alto Moinho (6 last)

Alto Moinho27-30GM 1 Dezembro
GM 1 Dezembro28-28Alto Moinho
Alto Moinho33-32GM 1 Dezembro
GM 1 Dezembro31-30Alto Moinho
Alto Moinho30-35GM 1 Dezembro
GM 1 Dezembro34-32Alto Moinho

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GM 1 Dezembro 1551 · Alto Moinho 1489

	GM 1 Dezembro	Alto Moinho
Our model	68%	32%
Market	62%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 58.1 points · Bet365 line 58.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points58.1GM 1 Dezembro 29.9 · Alto Moinho 28.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours GM 1 Dezembro (rating 1551 vs 1489).
GM 1 Dezembro is a clear favourite (69% market).
H2H favours GM 1 Dezembro: 4-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	GM 1 Dezembro	Alto Moinho
Points F\|A (Last 10)	30.5 / 28.7	27.6 / 29.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	31.8 / 28.6	27.6 / 29
Est. result	30	28

Est. total58.1

Line O/U58.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.45

X8.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.85

2 (+2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 58.51.85

Under 58.51.85

Diff.: 0.55 · Est. total: 57.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
09:08 +11’	1.45	8.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · GM 1 Dezembro 4–1–1 Alto Moinho

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Portugal 2a Divisao	Alto Moinho	27-30	GM 1 Dezembro
25/04/26 Portugal 2a Divisao	GM 1 Dezembro	28-28	Alto Moinho
31/01/26 Portugal 2a Divisao	Alto Moinho	33-32	GM 1 Dezembro
14/05/25 Portugal 2a Divisao	GM 1 Dezembro	31-30	Alto Moinho
26/03/25 Portugal 2a Divisao	Alto Moinho	30-35	GM 1 Dezembro
07/12/24 Portugal 2a Divisao	GM 1 Dezembro	34-32	Alto Moinho

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GM 1 Dezembro	Alto Moinho
C. Oriental Lisboa	35-27 W	28-27 W
Samora Correia	32-38 L	26-32 L
CA Rangers Telheiras	24-31 L	27-30 L
UJ Alverca	27-26 W	26-23 W
CSS Pinhal Frades	37-32 W	28-28 D
Club Naval Setubalense	31-29 W	28-28 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: GM 1 Dezembro (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GM 1 Dezembro

WWWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/10	CDE Camoes Portugal 2a Divisao	34-27	W
26/09	Estrela Amadora Portugal 2a Divisao	28-24	W
09/06	C. Oriental Lisboa Portugal 2a Divisao	35-27	W
06/06	Alto Moinho Portugal 2a Divisao	30-27	W
30/05	Samora Correia Portugal 2a Divisao	32-38	L
27/05	CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao	24-31	L
23/05	UJ Alverca Portugal 2a Divisao	27-26	W
09/05	CSS Pinhal Frades Portugal 2a Divisao	37-32	W
03/05	Club Naval Setubalense Portugal 2a Divisao	31-29	W
30/04	C. Oriental Lisboa Portugal 2a Divisao	27-26	W

Alto Moinho

LWWDDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/10	CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao	27-30	L
26/09	CD Marienses Portugal 2a Divisao	26-21	W
13/06	CA Rangers Telheiras Portugal 2a Divisao	32-32	D
10/06	Samora Correia Portugal 2a Divisao	26-32	L
06/06	GM 1 Dezembro Portugal 2a Divisao	27-30	L
03/06	CSS Pinhal Frades Portugal 2a Divisao	28-28	D
30/05	Club Naval Setubalense Portugal 2a Divisao	28-28	D
22/05	C. Oriental Lisboa Portugal 2a Divisao	28-27	W
09/05	UJ Alverca Portugal 2a Divisao	26-23	W
06/05	Samora Correia Portugal 2a Divisao	28-40	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GM 1 Dezembro vs Alto Moinho?

Our model gives 69% to GM 1 Dezembro.

How many points are expected in GM 1 Dezembro vs Alto Moinho?

The model estimates 58.1 total points (GM 1 Dezembro 29.9 · Alto Moinho 28.2).